The Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment has published new employment forecasts: Medium-Long Term Employment Outlook: Looking ahead to 2024.
- Employment growth is likely to slow to 1.5% per year by 2019-2014.
- The reduction in labour supply will push up labour costs and increase capital investment by firms leading to higher productivity growth reaching 1.3% per year by 2019-2024.
- Public Administration and Safety, Education and Training, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, and Primary Processing are expected to have the lowest levels of employment growth at under 1% per year. Mining and Quarrying is forecast to have the highest employment growth at 3.2%.
- Growth will be highest among high-skilled workers such as managers and professionals at 2.3% per year compared to 1.1% for semi-skilled or elementary skilled workers. Highly-skilled occupations are expected to account for 58% of job growth. The growth rates for lower skilled workers are forecast to slow throughout the decade.
- The impact of retirement will limit the supply of labour. Demand to replace retiring workers has sat at around 25,000 jobs per year in recent years. Demand for replacement of retiring workers is expected to grow to 31,000 over 2019-24 when new job growth will be only 37,000.
Ensuring we have enough workers to continue to provide an income for New Zealand and supply the services for an ageing population is going to be a significant challenge in the future of work. In addition to the challenges highlighted above we are likely to see an increase in more insecure work arrangements with people changing jobs more frequently.
What do you see as the opportunities for job growth in the medium-long term for New Zealand?
How can we improve the responsiveness of education and training so that it meets the needs of careers people will have in 5, 10 or 20 years’ time?
Read more about issues like these in our Future of Work Issues Papers.